Uno studio dalla Germania sull'impatto del Clima in Europa
Climate Impacts in Europe - Autori vari: Daniela Jacob, Lola Kotova, Claas Teichmann, Stefan P. Sobolowski, Robert Vautard, Chantal Donnelly, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Manolis G. Grillakis, Ioannis K. Tsanis, Andrea Damm, Abdulla Sakalli, Michelle T. H. van Vliet.
Under +1.5°C Global Warming
The Paris Agreement's central aim is to keep global warming below +2°C and avoid dangerous levels of climate change. How will two additional degrees affect Europe and what might be prevented if global warming is limited to +1.5°C rather than to +2°C? The IMPACT_1.5 initiative has explored this future scenario.
Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to investigate the potential impacts of +1.5°C on various sectors across Europe. Our results make clear that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades.
A +1.5°C global warming will substantially affect a wide range of economic sectors and regions.
For example, heat waves are already nearly twice as likely over southern Europe and the Mediterranean in a +1.5°C world. Alongside the negative impacts, a number of positive impacts are projected for certain sectors and regions.
Summer tourism in some parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe.
However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors (e.g., migration patterns, food production, etc.) that can and will influence Europe.